Two holistic scenarios for Flores Island (Portugal), a small isolated island, were developed in a two step process. The first step involved specialised stakeholders and decision-makers, and the second step involved lay citizens. The scenarios aimed at proposing alternative visions of the island’s future in 2030. Multi-criteria mapping was adapted for participative appraisal of the scenarios. The methodology proved to be successful in informing preferred futures although there was an elevated uncertainty. The project showed the limits of expert knowledge for the appraisal of holistic scenarios.
As a research project the impact was not normative but a relevant part of the population of Flores Island participated to the project.
The scenarios were made in: 2010
The scenarios look out to: 2030