Developing multiscale and integrative nature–people scenarios using the Nature Futures Framework

There is a need for transformative, multiscale global scenarios as positive Nature Futures to protect biodiversity and achieve sustainability goals. In an interative and participatory process, lead by a group of experts from the IPBES, the Nature Futures Framework was develeoped to specifically create positive Nature Futures.

The workshop was structured in four steps. First, a photo exercise on participants’ relationship to nature set the scene to create thematic groups. Second, three seeds per theme are selected and discovered with the method of Future Wheels. Afterwards, a three horizons diagramme per theme was created to visualize pathways towards the visions. Finally, the visions are mapped, focussing on topics and regions. This resulted in seven visions for positive Nature Futures on the topics of state of biodiversity, value of nature, management of nature, governance systems, production and consumption of ecosystem services, socio-economic development, use of technology and lifestyles. All of the visions require a societal paradigm shift and significant changes in values towards ‘responsible stewardship’ relationship between people and nature. these visions were further tested and refined through stakeholder engagement in different context.

Based on the seven visions, a group of experts identified three underlying value perspectives which were then brought together in the Natures Futures Framework (NFF) triangle. The “Nature for Nature” dimension encompasses intrinsic values of nature. Instrumental values such as Nature’s Contribution for People and Ecosystem Services are reflected in “Nature for Society”. The perspective “Nature as Culture” represents relational values in living in harmony with nature.

Through further stakeholder engagement processes and testing it was concluded that a plural values perspective is rather oriented towards the center space of the triangle while thriving for balance and harmony in some sectors might require a stronger orientation towards the corners of the triangle. The NFF triangle serves as a boundary object for plural values in desirable Nture futures on multiple scales to inform decision-making

From this process, a task force on scenarios and models to advance work on scenarios and models of biodiversity and ecosystem functions and services, as part of the new IPBES work programme up to 2030 is developing six illustrative scenarios of futures based on an extreme interpretation of the three value perspectives and the edges where they intersect.