This study modelled desirable futures at local scale by combining the NFF and multi-objective optimisation. By doing so, they showcase how the NFF can guide quantitative scenario modelling and decision-making based on a protocol for operationalization of the NFF.
The protocol encompasses (1) exploring nature-positive futures, (2) seeking alternative pathways for targets satisfying visions of plural values, and (3) screening key direct drivers to achieve the targets. This protocol is tested with a case study in the rural landscape of Bekambeushi River watershed in northeastern Japan.
LANDIS-II was used to model land use and land cover changes from 2015 to 2100 to explore desirable futures with plausible management strategies, focussing on nature-positive strategies. Then, Pareto optimal strategies are identified and transferred into NFF state space. By screening key management actions for forestry, farmland and renewables as pathways to match with the NFF categories, the work highlights trade-offs and synergies within different value perspectives.
The developed protocol can be used to explore how management strategies will contribute to desirable futures scenarios and its policy implications to reach a desirable state or transform a non-nature-positve strategy into a nature-positive strategy. Selective cutting was identified as the key response option for nature-positive futures.
This study defined NFF categories at each vertex and edge of the NFF triangle as Pareto optimal strategies between NFF indicators, highlighting the quantitative use of the NFF.
Furthermore, it was shown that pathways of possible management practices can change their value orientation over time within the NFF triangle.
The scenarios were made in: 2023
The scenarios look out to: 2100
