Transformation towards good governance in small-scale fisheries territory under ocean grabbing

The participatory scenario planning was part of a research process conducted in a small-scale fishery territory overlapping with the Port of Santos, where port facilities, disasters and dredging generate pressures that challenge the viability of SSF. The broader research aimed to understand the implications of overlapping territories, characterize ocean grabbing dynamics and governance arrangements, and co-develop strategies for a viable future of the fishery.
The research involved three interconnected phases: (1) focus-group workshops with fishers to identify and characterize the multiple dimensions of ocean grabbing; (2) semi-structured interviews with key institutional stakeholders to complement this characterization and analyze territorial governance; and (3) a participatory scenario workshop bringing together fishers and stakeholders to explore possible futures for SSF.
Based on the previous phases, two future scenarios were developed and illustrated through art: a “viability” scenario, in which SSF remains possible as a livelihood, and a “collapse” scenario, reflecting current trends that could compromise its continuity. Participants selected the “viability” scenario and co-developed strategies and an action plan focused on key governance domains: negotiation mechanisms, environmental licensing, social participation, and regulation of port activities. The entire process was analyzed through the Interactive Governance framework.
The results showed that participatory scenario planning enabled the integration of different forms of knowledge and identified governance changes needed to shift from a trajectory of decline towards a viable future for SSF. The process highlighted that ensuring the continuity of SSF depends on governance mechanisms capable of addressing competing territorial uses. The study demonstrates the potential of participatory scenarios as a tool to support governance transitions in contexts of ocean grabbing.

The impacts of this work are still emerging, as the transition towards the selected viability scenario depends on strengthening fishers’ collective organization and fostering greater commitment from decision-making institutions. Despite this, the process represented a significant step by bringing together fishers and key institutional actors in an unprecedented participatory process addressing the socio-environmental conflict between small-scale fisheries and port activities, with a focus on pathways for SSF viability. The workshop contributed to making conflicts, priorities, and governance gaps more explicit, while providing a basis for future dialogue and negotiation. Thus, participatory scenario planning proved valuable not only for envisioning alternative futures, but also for identifying the institutional and social conditions required to move towards a more viable and equitable governance pathway.