This paper describes the stages, methods and results of a modified community-based scenario planning process. The project facilitated vulnerability analysis and adaptation planning within the context of multiple interacting stressors in two coastal fishing communities in Thailand. The four stages of community-based scenario planning included:
1. Identifying the problem and purpose of scenario planning
2. Exploring the system and types of change
3. Generating possible future scenarios, and
4. Proposing and prioritizing adaptations.
Results revealed local perspectives on social and environmental change, participant visions for their local community and the environment, and potential actions that will help communities to adapt to the changes that are occurring. Community-based scenario planning proved to have significant potential as an anticipatory action research process for incorporating multiple stressors into vulnerability analysis and adaptation planning. This paper reflects on the process and outcomes to provide insights and suggest changes for future applications of community-based scenario planning that will lead to more effective learning, innovation and action in communities and related social–ecological systems.
It is not clear what impact these workshops may have had. The community-based scenario planning workshops were one time interventions that were supported by local NGOs and participated in by community members. Community members who participated expressed satisfaction with the process and workshops. Community reports and an academic paper was produced. However, there was no follow-up afterwards.
The scenarios were made in: 2013
The scenarios look out to: 2023
