Urban expansion in the Atlantic Forest: applying the Nature Futures Framework to develop a conceptual model and future scenarios

We developed a qualitative model to describe social-ecological drivers and consequences of urban growth that will likely affect the provision of ecosystem services at the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. Based on this model, we proposed three scenarios for urban expansion in which different values of nature are prioritized: preservation of nature’s diversity and funtions (Nature for Nature), benefits and uses people derive from nature (Nature for Society) and humans as an integral part of nature (Nature as Culture). This was done in acoordance with proposed values of nature by the Nature Futures Framework, an innovative tool that allows for the consideration of multiple worldviews and perceptions. Then, we discussed potential pathways to achieve the developed scenarios, based on possible policies that target specific landscape components for management and intervention.