This study used the Kesho participatory approach to co-produce four alternative land use scenarios for Lamu County, Kenya, looking ahead to 2063. A three-day workshop brought together 32 stakeholders, including government, NGOs, researchers, and community members such as fishers, mangrove harvesters, farmers, and tourism operators. Together they identified coastal development and environmental health as the two most important and uncertain drivers of change. These became the axes of a 2×2 scenario matrix, producing four narratives: New Dawn, Struggling Futures, Ecosystem Under Siege, and Growth Trap.
The scenarios were then translated into spatially explicit land cover maps using satellite data and modelling in TerrSet. A benefit transfer method was used to estimate how mangrove ecosystem services, including provisioning, regulating, and cultural services, might change under each scenario. The results show that governance quality and ecosystem condition matter more than mangrove area alone in determining the future value of these services.
This study presents the first participatory scenario assessment in Lamu County, providing policy-relevant insights into how development pathways may shape mangrove ecosystems and the services they provide. Beyond Lamu, Kesho offers an adaptable tool for application in other mangrove-rich regions globally, supporting efforts to align local decision-making with continental and global sustainability agendas.
The scenarios were made in: 2023
The scenarios look out to: 2063
