Predicting and Assessing Natural Capital and Ecosystem Services (PANCES) scenarios

Japan has relied on goods and services imported from other countries with calorie-based food self-sufficiency of 38% and is under a long-term population decline, causing land-abandonment across the country.

Project facts

Japan
Japan
2018

The main objective of the scenario building is to
explore the implications of future uncertainties (1. population distribution and 2. reliance/wise use of domestic natural capital) on land-use and ecosystem services of Japan up-to 2050. Four scenarios were developed through the scenario-axes technique and then were quantified with a set of various models.

This case provides a new approach to collectively develop nationalscale future scenarios for the purpose of exploring potential changes in natural capital and ecosystem services and human well-being up to 2050 using key direct and indirect drivers

The scenarios were made in: 2018

The scenarios look out to: 2050

Submitted by:

Shizuka Hashimoto
Project Leader
February 13, 2021

How to cite this page:

Shizuka Hashimoto
Predicting and Assessing Natural Capital and Ecosystem Services (PANCES) scenarios
www.biospherefutures.net
2021/02/13

Project images

PANCES project
PANCES project
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