We aimed to explore big-picture scenarios of a river basin under climate change by characterizing future change as emergent from interactions between diverse efforts to build resilience and a complex, cross-scale social-ecological system (SES). To do so, we used the cross-impact balances (CIB) method to structure the scenario process, which is a semi-quantitative method that applies systems theory to generate internally consistent narrative scenarios from a network of interacting drivers of change. In doing so, we also aimed to explore the potential for the CIB scenario method to surface diverse perspectives and drivers of change in SESs.
The study findings were shared with participants during an online workshop and all outputs were passed on to study partners for future use.
The scenarios were made in: 2020
The scenarios look out to: 2050
