A Preliminary Study on Scenarios for Biodiversity Targets in China Based on the “Nature Futures Framework”

Addressing the limitations of conventional biodiversity scenarios—which predominantly focus on projecting future trends of anthropogenic drivers (e.g., climate change, land-use change) and their adverse impacts on nature, while inadequately capturing the plural values of nature-human relationships, cross-scale linkages, and synergies and trade-offs between biodiversity conservation targets and the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development—this study applies the IPBES Nature Futures Framework (NFF) to fill the critical gap in NFF-based subglobal case studies. Specific objectives are to:

• systematize the methodological workflow for developing NFF-aligned scenario narratives tailored to the national context, through a review of international best practices and iterative, multi-stakeholder consultations involving researchers, policymakers and local practitioners
• co-develop three positive, policy-relevant biodiversity conservation scenarios for China (“Beautiful China”, “Harmonious China” and “Smart China”) aligned with the NFF’s three core value perspectives (intrinsic, instrumental and relational values of nature), with target years set to 2035 and 2050 to synchronize with China’s medium- and long-term national development planning horizons
• and provide robust scientific and technical support for the formulation, implementation and evaluation of national biodiversity conservation targets, facilitate China’s effective implementation of the post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF), and contribute empirical evidence to refine the NFF for broader multi-scale application.

This study represents a pivotal methodological and empirical contribution to the application of the IPBES Nature Futures Framework (NFF) at the national scale, with implications spanning academic, policy, and science‑policy interface dimensions.

• Filling a Critical Gap in National‑Scale NFF Applications. Prior to this study, NFF‑based scenario exercises remained overwhelmingly concentrated at the global scale, while national and sub‑national case studies—essential for ensuring the diversity and inclusiveness of future scenarios—were scarce, particularly for China. By systematically adapting the NFF’s iterative, participatory scenario‑design methodology to the Chinese context, the study established the first NFF‑aligned national biodiversity conservation target scenarios for China, directly responding to the IPBES call for urgent multi‑level case studies at regional and national scales.
• Operationalizing the Three Value Perspectives of Nature. The study translated the NFF’s three core value perspectives—intrinsic (nature for nature), relational (nature as culture), and instrumental (nature for society)—into three concrete, policy‑relevant positive scenarios: “Beautiful China,” “Harmonious China,” and “Smart China”. This tripartite scenario architecture provides a navigation tool for Chinese policymakers to conceptualize and compare alternative biodiversity futures, enabling a more transparent discussion of synergies and trade‑offs between conservation targets and the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.
• Supporting the Implementation of the Post‑2020 Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF)By aligning . scenario time horizons (2035 and 2050) with China’s medium‑ and long‑term national development planning cycles, the study provides a science‑based foundation for translating the Kunming‑Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework into national targets. The NFF‑based scenario approach directly supports the GBF’s ambition to “live in harmony with nature” and offers a methodological template for other Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity undertaking similar national target‑setting exercises.
• Catalyzing Subsequent Quantitative Modeling and Multi‑Scale Extensions. While the study itself delivers qualitative scenario narratives, it has served as a methodological catalyst for downstream quantitative research. Subsequent work—exemplified by the Zhejiang provincial land‑use and biodiversity modeling study (2024)—explicitly adopted the “Beautiful China” and “Smart China” scenario logics to quantitatively simulate land‑use patterns and Mean Species Abundance (MSA) under the FLUS‑Biodiversity model. This demonstrates the study’s ripple effect in bridging qualitative NFF narratives with quantitative scenario modeling, addressing one of the key research frontiers identified within the paper itself.
• Advancing the Science‑Policy Interface for Ecological Civilization. The study contributes to the conceptual operationalization of China’s “Ecological Civilization” paradigm by demonstrating how plural values of nature can be systematically integrated into national biodiversity governance. Through multi‑stakeholder consultation involving researchers, policymakers, and local practitioners, it exemplifies the co‑production of knowledge that IPBES promotes, thereby strengthening the science‑policy interface for biodiversity decision‑making in China.
• Informing Iterative Refinement of the NFF Itself. As an early national‑scale empirical application, the study generates context‑specific feedback for the ongoing refinement of the NFF and its methodological guidance . The challenges it identifies—such as the need for systematic scenario‑development guidelines, integration of qualitative narratives with quantitative models, and enhanced multi‑scale policy alignment—directly inform the IPBES task force on scenarios and models as it continues to evolve the framework for broader global application.

In essence, the study’s principal impact lies in its role as a bridge‑builder: between the global NFF methodology and national‑scale biodiversity governance; between qualitative visioning and quantitative modeling; and between China’s Ecological Civilization discourse and the international GBF implementation agenda. While the scenarios themselves remain aspirational narratives pending full quantitative validation, they have already demonstrated concrete influence by shaping subsequent provincial‑scale modeling efforts and providing a replicable methodological template for NFF‑based national target‑setting worldwide.