Desirable futures for coral reefs social-ecological systems

Coral reefs are vital social-ecological systems, yet they are highly vulnerable to global change. By mid-century, global warming projections suggest that coral reefs will be approaching the brink of biophysical collapse, placing both the species they support and the human communities that depend on them under existential threat. While it is essential to convey this urgency, bleak outlooks can become self-reinforcing, potentially undermining the capacity to act. To counter this, experts working on coral reefs across diverse geographies engaged in a structured visioning process to imagine desirable futures for coral reef systems. The focus was on crafting desirable visions that are not necessarily tied to any one location or moment in time, but are relatable and adaptable across diverse coral reef social-ecological contexts. These visions aim to alleviate feelings of helplessness, facilitate inter-sectoral dialogue between diverse coral reef actors, and hopefully mobilise the diverse range of capacities essential to imagining and enacting transformative change for safe and just coral reef futures.

Workshop participants reported feeling satisfied to very satisfied with both the workshop, and the visions, indicating that these outputs were perceived as relatable to their own contexts and experiences. Most participants expressed feeling comfortable with the proposed visions and narratives, suggesting a high degree of alignment and applicability with their professional perspectives, and practices. Two concrete examples of the above were the incorporation of futures thinking approach in the Wildlife Conservation Society Coral Reef Strategy and the featuring of the visioning outputs at the Blue Zone of the United Nations Ocean Conference 3 (UNOC 3) in Nice, France (2025).