Disruptive changes in our global ocean and fisheries have sparked warnings of an increase in fisheries conflicts. However, such environmental changes have not yet been considered in tandem with other critical social, economic and political trends to map out possible future trajectories for fisheries conflict. By systematically combining scientific evidence with creative story-telling techniques, we map out the different causal drivers of fisheries conflicts, and explore how they interact in four regional settings by developing four narrative scenarios. We advance the narrative scenario approach by combining diverse data sources to craft primary storylines, and by consulting regional experts to validate the scenarios and develop alternative future trajectories. By use of an exploratory scenario approach, we escape deterministic forecasts of future conflict and instead provide creative and complex narratives set in four regions of the world. The scenarios are:
- the North-East Atlantic: “Scramble for the Atlantic” (2030)
- the East China Sea: “Remodeled Empire” (2045)
- the coast of West Africa: “Oceanic Decolonization” (2045)
- the Arctic Ocean: “Polar Renaissance” (2060)
We highlight key lessons learnt from the four scenarios, and the narrative approach taken to build them, for both scientists and policymakers. The scenarios are designed to trigger questions around the consequences of our current choices and how to avoid undesirable trajectories. They can be used to support decision making in the present by building capacity for better anticipation of an unpredictable future
The scenarios were made in: 2021
The scenarios look out to: 2030, 2045, 2060
