The scenario project aims to explore the spatial and land-system consequences of achieving ambitious international biodiversity targets – such as the EU Green Deal and CBD – across Europe by 2050.
A primary goal is to address the uncertainty of how these broad sustainability targets can be physically implemented on the ground. To do so, the IPBES Nature Futures Framework (NFF) were translated into spatially explicit simulations using the CLUMondo model. Instead of forecasting a single trajectory, the project seeks to model “plural” pathways that reflect different normative ways society values nature: for its intrinsic value (Nature for Nature), its practical utility (Nature for Society), or its cultural heritage (Nature as Culture).
Results indicate that achieving these targets requires drastic land system changes across all perspectives. Natural forests and grasslands are forecast to expand, while productive areas will undergo simultaneous intensification and diversification. Although the overall direction of change is similar, 20% of Europe’s land area will differ depending on the adopted NFF perspective, with prominent spatial disagreements emerging in eastern and western Europe.
By modeling these alternative futures, the project aims to quantify the complex trade-offs and synergies in land management, such as balancing the expansion of natural habitats with the need for agricultural production. Ultimately, the goal is to map areas of spatial convergence—where all value systems require similar land changes—and hotspots of contention. Highlighting these spatial realities is intended to foster constructive dialogue among policymakers and stakeholders, providing an evidence-based tool for managing land sustainably.
The scenarios were made in: 2023
The scenarios look out to: 2050
